January was wild. My US equity portfolio ended up 7.7%. Then February happened.
Sector Allocation (as of January 31, 2026)
| GICS Sector | % of Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 36.1% |
| Materials | 17.9% |
| Industrials | 10.6% |
| Health Care | 7.6% |
| Communication Services | 1.6% |
| Financials | 1.1% |
| Information Technology | 0.9% |
| Options | 1.0% |
| Cash | 24.7% |
What Worked in January
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) | Energy – Up 17.92%
Energy was one of the best performers in January. When markets get nervous about recession risks, energy stocks tend to hold up. NOG jumped nearly 18% while the broader market stayed volatile.
Albemarle (ALB) | Materials – Up 15.69%
My largest position at 17.9%. ALB rallied through January on the robotics and autonomous vehicle wave. Lithium demand for EVs and robotics plays out differently from precious metals speculation.
February 11th earnings: Beat revenue by $80M, missed EPS by $0.04. They’re idling the Australian lithium plant because of weak pricing. Stock dropped 3% after hours, then recovered the next day.
Alibaba (BABA) | Consumer Discretionary – Up 15.69%
My second-largest at 17%. China’s building domestic AI chips to reduce dependence on US semiconductors. Alibaba’s well-positioned for this shift. Yes, I’m concentrated here – it’s a deliberate bet on China tech.
What Didn’t Work
Doximity (DOCS) | Health Care – Down 15.4%
Down 15.4% in January. Healthcare tech was under pressure.
February 6th earnings beat expectations – revenue $185M versus $182M expected, EPS $0.46 versus $0.45. Users still growing.
Then guidance disappointed. Q4 revenue forecast came in at $143-144M versus $150M consensus. 4% miss. Stock tanked 33% after hours.
Feels like an overreaction. The company’s still profitable, growing double-digits, sitting on $65M cash with zero debt. They just authorized a $500M buyback. Sure, growth is slowing from pandemic peaks. But a 33% drop for a 4% guidance miss?
I’m keeping it. Amazon launched AI healthcare in January. Alibaba’s investing heavily in AI diagnostics and tackling doctor shortages. More competition, yes. But it also validates the market opportunity. Today’s AI healthcare threat becomes tomorrow’s growth story.
Grab (GRAB) | Industrials – Down 13.8%
Dropped during January’s volatility. Q3 results were solid – revenue, earnings, users all growing. But at 49x forward earnings, it’s expensive. High-valuation stocks get sold first when investors panic.
February 11th earnings: Q4 revenue came in at $906M, missing the $940.6M consensus by 3.7%. Here’s the milestone though – 2025 was Grab’s first full year of profitability. They also crossed 50 million monthly users. Despite these achievements, the stock dropped 7% after hours before recovering slightly. Market focused on the revenue miss and wasn’t happy about the $425M Stash Financial acquisition.
XPeng (XPEV) | Consumer Discretionary – Down 11.4%
Chinese EV stocks got hit. I wrote about XPeng recently – strong delivery growth, expanding into Europe and Middle East, competitive autonomous driving technology.
Stock dropped after they announced ambitious 2026 sales targets that made investors nervous. Add in concerns about China’s economic slowdown and competition from BYD and Tesla. Frustrating to watch good companies trade on sentiment instead of execution.
How I’m Positioned for 2026
My 2026 strategy targets three sectors: Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Health Care. I’m still moving away from my 2023-2025 positions toward these new targets. It’s taking time.
Right now: Consumer Discretionary 36.1%, Industrials 10.6%, Health Care 7.6% (and underwater).
One thing to note – Alibaba and Grab sit in different GICS sectors, but they’re both Asian digital platforms. My real concentration is in Asian tech-enabled services.
Consumer Discretionary (36.1%)
Alibaba at 17%, XPeng, and other Asian positions. I’m betting on Asia’s growing middle class and digital adoption. It’s a concentrated bet.
Industrials (10.6%)
Autonomous vehicles and ride-hailing, all with Asian exposure. Chinese autonomous driving companies plus Southeast Asian mobility platforms. The allocation’s too small right now. I need to either add more names or increase position sizes.
Health Care (7.6%)
My smallest target allocation. Doximity and biotech positions are all in the red. The AI healthcare story still makes sense to me, but my stock picks haven’t worked out. I need to add more companies to this bucket.
Materials (17.9%) & Energy (11.5%)
Albemarle at 17.9% and Northern Oil & Gas are holdovers from my 2023-2025 strategy. They don’t fit my 2026 plan, but they’re my best performers. I sold SLB and ACHR in January. Eventually I’ll need to decide whether to trim Albemarle and NOG to fund my three target sectors.
The Gold and Silver Crash in Late January
China’s been flooding money into commodities as their economy struggles. Gold rallied to all-time highs, silver followed. Traders piled on leverage.
Friday, January 31st: Gold crashed in its biggest single-day drop in over a decade. By Monday February 2nd, gold was down another 10% – nearly 20% from its peak. Silver dropped 16%.
What triggered it? Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair. He’s Trump’s pick and known as an inflation hawk. Markets interpreted this as a signal for tighter monetary policy ahead. The dollar strengthened, making gold more expensive to hold. Then the CME raised margin requirements – meaning traders needed more collateral to maintain their futures positions. Overleveraged traders who couldn’t post additional cash got forced to sell. Those sales pushed prices lower, triggering more margin calls on other traders. The selling fed on itself.
Here’s what caught my attention: this was mainly a paper gold crash in CME futures. Physical gold in Shanghai held up better. It wasn’t about demand collapsing – it was overleveraged positions getting unwound.
I stayed out of precious metals in 2025, and I’m keeping it that way for 2026. I’m not interested in getting caught in forced liquidation.
February – The Panic and Recovery
Anthropic announced Claude Opus 4.6 with Cowork in early February – a desktop AI that automates office tasks. Nearly $1 trillion got wiped from software stocks. Investors worried about AI displacing workers and destroying these companies.
My portfolio dropped 5% by February 5th. All the January gains were gone.
Then by February 10th, I was back to +5.5% for the year. Classic V-shaped recovery. The AI panic turned out to be overdone.
Have we seen the bottom? I don’t know. Beyond the immediate AI worries, there are bigger structural risks out there. Japan’s election results and fiscal policy changes are raising concerns about their bond market and the yen carry trade – which could trigger global deleveraging if it unwinds badly. Markets are still figuring out what AI automation means for software companies. China’s economic data stays weak. Geopolitical tensions keep rising.
For now, I’m watching and waiting. Not forcing any trades.
Disclaimer: This is a review of my personal portfolio and performance for learning purposes. It is not investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.