March 2026 Portfolio Performance: The Toll Booth at Hormuz
March was rough. My equities portfolio ended down 3.6% for the month. The S&P 500 dropped 5.1%. Nothing came out clean.
YTD I’m still flat at +0.1%. January’s run gave me enough buffer to absorb two down months and still stay ahead of the index — but that gap is held up by two sectors, not broad-based outperformance. More on that below.
The Numbers First
| Comparison | Jan Return | Feb Return | Mar Return | YTD (Mar 31) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Portfolio | +7.7% | -3.7% | -3.6% | +0.1% |
| S&P 500 | +1.1% | -0.8% | -5.1% | -4.6% |
S&P 500 Mar 31 close: 6,528.52. Portfolio YTD from Dec 31, 2025 base.
Where I Was Positioned — And Why It Matters
Not all sectors got hit equally in March. Here’s how the major sectors fared — and how my positions tracked against them. The ETF column shows the benchmark index fund for each sector.
| Sector | ETF | My Allocation | ETF Mar | My Mar | ETF YTD | My YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | XLE | 4.7% | +9.55% | +6.1% | +37.02% | +28.3% |
| Materials | XLB | 12.8% | -6.44% | +0.5% | +10.19% | +3.8% |
| Industrials | XLI | 24.2% | -8.70% | -7.0% | +4.26% | -13.9% |
| Healthcare | XLV | 22.9% | -8.48% | +6.2% | -5.29% | -7.7% |
| Comm. Services | XLC | 1.6% | -6.09% | -11.7% | -5.83% | -13.2% |
| Consumer Discr. | XLY | 31.4% | -6.74% | -9.6% | -8.73% | -14.5% |
| Financial Services | XLF | 2.5% | -4.01% | +4.3% | -9.86% | -21.1% |
ETF source: Seeking Alpha, as of April 1, 2026.
Energy and Materials holding up is no surprise — these are the sectors that typically do well in wartime. Everything else was red. Though worth noting on Healthcare — strip out DOCS, which had a rough quarter, and the rest of my Healthcare positions are actually up 7.8% YTD.
The one that stands out is Industrials — I’m trailing the benchmark by a wide margin there. That’s because my Industrials exposure is concentrated in China Industrials (Autonomous Driving) names, not US industrial companies. The war spending cycle that’s lifting the XLI isn’t flowing into pre-profit autonomous driving companies in China. That gap is exactly what I’m addressing.
March’s Three Headwinds
Iran war — ceasefire announced, but don’t pop the champagne yet. A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect on April 8, with Iran agreeing in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets rallied on the news. But within hours, Israel launched strikes on Lebanon and Iran threatened to walk away from the whole deal. As of writing the strait hasn’t meaningfully reopened. I remain sceptical. Wars rarely end on the timeline politicians announce in advance.
Energy shock feeding into everything else. Oil above $100 doesn’t stay contained — it feeds through to petrol, transport, food, manufacturing costs. The energy trade has two sides. What’s pushing commodity prices up is the same thing making life harder for consumers and businesses everywhere else.
Stagflation — no longer just a risk, now an official call. Earlier this month the IMF came out and said it plainly — “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth” as a direct consequence of the Iran war. BofA called it “mild stagflation” and revised their US inflation forecast up to 3.6% for 2026. With inflation re-accelerating, the Fed isn’t just stuck — there’s a real possibility they have to hike again even as growth slows. That’s the stagflation trap in its most uncomfortable form.
The Positions That Drove the Month
Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) | Healthcare | +36.2%
OVID was the standout of the month. On March 20, the company released Phase 1 safety and tolerability data for OV329 — its drug targeting treatment-resistant epilepsies — with no serious adverse events. The same day, Ovid closed a $60 million PIPE financing led by Point72 and Balyasny. Wedbush raised their price target from $5 to $7. The stock surged close to 20% that Friday alone.
The cash runway now extends toward 2029, and Phase 2 of OV329 is planned for Q2 2026. That’s the next real catalyst to watch. Q4 earnings also beat — revenue of $718,000 against a $62,600 forecast. Getting all three in the same week — clean trial data, big institutional money, and an analyst upgrade — that doesn’t happen often for a small biotech.
WeRide (WRD) | Industrials | +17.8%
WRD had a busy March — Nvidia GTC showcase of the new Robotaxi GXR with meaningfully lower hardware costs, a deal to deliver 2,000 purpose-built robotaxis with Geely Farizon, WeChat integration for ride booking, and a $100 million share buyback. For a stock that’s been heavily discounted on execution risk, March was the month where execution started showing up. The commercial launch with Grab in Punggol on April 1 — Singapore’s first public autonomous ride service in a residential estate — was the clearest proof point yet. Hard to argue execution risk when the cars are running in your backyard. The permit footprint across eight countries remains the core thesis and that hasn’t changed.
Pony AI (PONY) | Industrials | -32.0%
PONY was the flip side. The market had been pricing PONY at a premium over WRD for much of 2025 — partly on narrative, partly on its China robotaxi scale. When WRD started proving execution in March and PONY’s Q4 showed licensing revenue down 53% with widening operating losses, that premium collapsed fast. Revenue came in at $29.1 million, down 18% year-on-year. The headline GAAP profit of $75.5 million looked good until you saw that most of it was a paper gain on trading securities. The robotaxi business itself was actually moving — fare revenue up over 500% — but the market sold the headline and moved on.
I think PONY is being misunderstood. Since the earnings, the April execution has been coming in — Europe’s first commercial robotaxi launched in Zagreb with Uber, Singapore by-invite rides approved with ComfortDelGro, and PonyWorld 2.0 released just today. Same playbook as WRD, just running a few weeks behind. The company is targeting 3,000 vehicles across 20 cities by year end, nearly half overseas. The thesis hasn’t changed. I’m holding.
Axon Enterprise (AXON) | Industrials | Exited
I sold AXON in full during March, booking a realised gain of +5.6%. AXON had already fallen more than 35% from its late 2025 peak above $730, multiple executives were selling their own shares, and the market had stopped rewarding growth and started asking for proof of margins. The business is fine. But when insiders are selling and the goalposts have moved, that’s enough for me to move on.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) | Energy | Partial Exit
I trimmed a significant portion of NOG in March, locking in a +27.1% gain on the sold shares. Still holding the rest — oil staying elevated means the position keeps doing what it’s supposed to do.
ALB | Materials | Partial Exit
I trimmed ALB in late March, locking in a +2.6% gain on the sold shares. The lithium story hasn’t played out the way I expected and the position had gotten too big for that level of conviction. Still holding a good chunk — the reduction isn’t done yet.
What I’m Doing Next — Q1 Strategy Check
Two down months but I’m not panicking. My thinking is simple — wars are expensive, and the spending that comes with them historically flows back into the economy. Defence, reconstruction, energy infrastructure. That money has to go somewhere, and a lot of it goes into industrials. That’s my bull case and I’m sticking with it.
Industrials: shifting toward US names
The energy shock from the war doesn’t stop at the petrol pump. The first wave is what consumers are feeling now — fuel, utilities, transport costs going up. The second wave comes 2–4 months later when manufacturers and businesses have no choice but to pass their own higher costs through to prices. That’s still in the pipeline for US consumers. And that same spending cycle means more defence contracts, more infrastructure investment and more reshoring — all of which flows into US industrials.
The reshoring story is real but slow. Companies have announced over $200 billion in US investment commitments — semiconductors, pharma, defence — but most of these won’t be running at full capacity until 2027 or later. The near-term opportunity isn’t in the companies that will eventually operate those facilities. It’s in the companies building and equipping them right now. That’s where I’m looking.
My China Industrials (Autonomous Driving) positions are a different story. The autonomous mobility thesis is intact long-term but these are pre-profit companies burning cash, and in a risk-off market that’s exactly what gets sold.
Healthcare: no change
Healthcare holds up in this kind of environment — people don’t stop needing medical care because inflation is high. My Healthcare numbers look worse than they are because of one outlier dragging the whole sector. Strip that out and the rest of the book is up 7.8% YTD. The thesis is working. I’ll keep adding here selectively.
Consumer Discretionary: trimming BABA, keeping Asia
Most of my Consumer Discretionary holdings are Asian — BABA, SE, XPEV. The China PPI turning positive in March for the first time in 41 months is actually good news for the thesis. When Chinese factory margins improve, it eventually flows through to merchant activity, consumer confidence and platform spending. BABA sits on top of that recovery when it comes.
The problem is timing. That PPI recovery flows to corporate margins first, then wages, then consumer spending. I was in Beijing from April 5–9. Walked through Xidan and Wangfujing — both major shopping districts — and the vibe was noticeably flat. Entire hotel and mall buildings boarded up, way less tourist traffic than pre-COVID. The spending recovery that was being priced into China consumer stocks at the start of the year clearly hasn’t happened at street level. What’s holding up is the newer community malls in residential areas — people are still buying daily necessities and local brands, just not doing the aspirational shopping that used to fill those flagship corridors. Bifurcated, not broken. But not the recovery story yet.
So I’m trimming BABA — not because I’ve given up on the thesis, but because the position is too large for the timeline involved. Valuations are cheap, the market has priced in a lot of bad news, and if the PPI recovery feeds through to wages and spending over 2026–2027, the platforms sitting on top of that consumer base look very different. I’m sizing down to something I can hold comfortably and wait.
Conclusion
Three months in, my 2026 strategy is still intact. My sector allocation needs adjusting — and that’s what this quarter’s review is for. The macro environment is noisier than I expected when I set out in January, but the core thesis hasn’t changed: concentrated positions in sectors I understand, held with conviction, reviewed every quarter. I’ll be back next month with the April update — and in July for the full Q2 strategy review.
Disclaimer: This is a review of my personal portfolio and performance for learning purposes. It is not investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.