I Lost Almost $1,000 on Novo Nordisk Options. The Stock Is a Hold For Now.
Let me just say it upfront.
I bought Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) call options back in February. They expire April 17. Worth almost nothing now — about USD 996 in losses. And honestly? Deep down, I think I knew this might happen.
Let me walk you through exactly what happened, because I think many of us have been here before.
How It Started — The Earnings Selloff
When NVO reported earnings earlier this year, the stock sold off sharply. The 2026 guidance came in at negative 5 to 13%, CagriSema had already disappointed in its head-to-head trial against Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) Zepbound, and the market just reacted badly.
My read at the time: overreaction. Knee-jerk. The kind of selloff where the market panics and the fundamentals get ignored.
NVO is still the global leader in GLP-1 diabetes. Ozempic alone made around USD 19 billion in 2025. The business wasn’t broken — the narrative was just very negative. So I did what I often do when I think the market is overreacting.
I bought options.
Specifically, April 2026 USD 50 call options at USD 3.35 each. My bet: V-shape recovery. Stock sells off, sentiment recovers, price bounces back. I’ve seen it play out before.
The Current Situation
It didn’t bounce. At least not the way I expected.
The stock kept drifting sideways and lower. The April expiry started feeling closer. And somewhere along the way — and I’ll be honest about this — I could feel the options going into trouble. Not consciously saying “these are worthless now,” but that quiet sense that the recovery probably wasn’t coming in time.
So what did I do?
I bought shares at USD 40.
Not because I had a new, clear-headed thesis. But because subconsciously, I think I was hedging myself against the loss. If the options expired worthless, at least I’d still have exposure through the shares. And maybe — just maybe — something would happen to push the stock up sharply and save the options too.
That’s the honest version of events. It wasn’t a clean, rational two-step strategy. It was more like: “The options are probably gone, but let me hold on a bit longer while also making sure I’m not completely on the sidelines if the stock recovers.”
Most investors won’t admit that. But I think most investors have done it.
So the real question now is: what do I actually think about NVO as a stock?
Why I Still Think NVO Is Interesting — Even After Buying at USD 40
Before I get into the thesis, here’s a quick snapshot of where both companies stand on products and pipeline. The bear narrative calls NVO a one-trick semaglutide company. I don’t think that’s accurate — but the diversification argument is mostly a pipeline story, not a today story.
| Drug Pipelines | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Core GLP-1 Drug | Semaglutide | Tirzepatide |
| Commercialised Core GLP-1 Formulations | Ozempic (Type 2 Diabetes — inj.) Rybelsus (Type 2 Diabetes — oral) Wegovy (Obesity — inj.)Wegovy pill (Obesity — oral) Wegovy HD (Obesity — high dose inj.) | Mounjaro (Type 2 Diabetes — inj.) Zepbound (Obesity — inj.) |
| Core GLP-1 as % of 2025 Revenue | ~74% (USD 34.6B of USD 46.9B) | ~56% (USD 36.5B of USD 65.2B) |
| Oral GLP-1 Pipeline | None pending | Orforglipron (Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity — FDA pending Q2 2026) |
| Next-gen Obesity Pipeline | CagriSema (Obesity — FDA H2 2026) Amycretin (Obesity — Phase 3) | Retatrutide (Obesity — Phase 3) |
| Triple Agonist Pipeline | UBT251 (Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity — Phase 2) | Retatrutide (Obesity — Phase 3) |
| Commercialised Non-GLP-1 | Wegovy (MASH — liver disease) Wegovy (Heart attack / stroke prevention) | Kisunla (Alzheimer’s)<br>Taltz (Autoimmune) Jaypirca (Cancer) Lebrikizumab (Eczema) |
| Pipeline Non-GLP-1 | Mim8 (Haemophilia A — BLA submitted) Etavopivat (Sickle cell — Phase 3) | Olomorasib (Lung cancer — Phase 3) Sofetabart (Ovarian cancer) |
A few things stand out from this. Both companies are heavily dependent on one molecule today — semaglutide for NVO, tirzepatide for LLY. That’s the honest starting point. But LLY actually has more approved non-GLP-1 drugs right now — Alzheimer’s, cancer, autoimmune. Where NVO has the edge is rare disease pipeline, which is less crowded and often commands premium pricing if approved.
And here’s the irony — LLY’s premium valuation is largely built on GLP-1 dominance, yet it’s NVO that gets called a one-trick company.
Everyone is treating NVO as purely an obesity company that’s losing to LLY. But the diabetes business gets almost no airtime and it’s actually the bigger story.
Ozempic made around USD 19 billion in 2025, growing 10% year-on-year. That’s the diabetes drug, not the obesity one. Globally, Novo holds about 68% of the GLP-1 diabetes market outside the US — markets where LLY barely competes. And only 7.4% of diabetics worldwide are currently on GLP-1 drugs. The other 92.6% are still on older medications. That’s an enormous untapped runway.
On valuation: NVO is trading at about 11× forward earnings right now. To put that in context — that’s the same multiple as Pfizer, which is facing real patent expiry pressure, and Sanofi, which is a slow-growth mature business. Meanwhile AstraZeneca (AZN) and AbbVie (ABBV), both of which went through rough patches and recovered, trade at 16–17×. The healthcare sector average sits around 18×. NVO’s old peak of 26× was probably inflated — that was pre-competition, before LLY entered the market seriously. But 11× feels too low for a business with 82% gross margins, 40%+ return on invested capital, and dominant international market share. A realistic recovery multiple — in line with AZN and ABBV at 15–17× — gets you to USD 57–65. That’s not an unreasonable assumption. That’s just pricing it like a quality pharma company that had a bad year.
I’ll be upfront about what this trade actually is. This is a contrarian bet, not a short-term trade. The crowd is mostly saying Hold. The quant models flag it poorly because Growth and Momentum are both weak right now — which makes sense for a confirmed trough year. But the underlying business quality hasn’t changed. Strong margins, strong cash flow, dominant international position, a pipeline that’s quietly improving. At 11× earnings with a 3.2% dividend and management actively buying back shares at these prices, I’m comfortable being paid to wait for 2027.
And here’s something that barely got any coverage this week. China’s vice commerce minister just met with Novo Nordisk and specifically expressed hope that the company will continue cultivating the Chinese market — framing it as part of building a “healthy China.” That’s a direct government signal that Novo is welcome and supported for the long term.
Why does that matter? Because NVO already owns China’s GLP-1 market — 77% share in GLP-1 and 51% in insulin. And China’s Supreme Court just upheld Novo’s semaglutide patent, protecting that position in the world’s second-largest pharma market.
Meanwhile, LLY just committed USD 3 billion over the next decade just to build the manufacturing capacity to get orforglipron into China. Their drug isn’t even approved there yet.
So while everyone is talking about LLY winning the US obesity war, NVO is the entrenched leader in the market with the most diabetic patients in the world — with government backing and legal protection now confirmed.
A few other near-term catalysts: Medicare GLP-1 access opens from July 2026, unlocking up to 13.7 million new eligible patients at USD 50/month. Wegovy HD (7.2mg) just got FDA approval this week, showing 21% average weight loss and narrowing the gap with Zepbound. And a BMJ Medicine study published recently showed stopping GLP-1 drugs raises cardiovascular risk by up to 22% — reinforcing these as lifelong medications, which helps the long-term retention case.
And there’s a pipeline asset almost nobody is talking about. Novo just released Phase 2 data on UBT251 — a triple agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP and glucagon receptors, co-developed with a Chinese biotech partner. In Phase 2 trials on Chinese T2D patients, it outperformed semaglutide on both blood sugar control and weight loss. Novo is planning a global Phase 2 for H2 2026. This is the same mechanism class as LLY’s retatrutide — widely seen as LLY’s most promising next-generation asset. Early days, yes. But the market is pricing NVO as if the pipeline is empty. It isn’t.
And one more thing worth noting. CNBC ran a piece last week on how food companies — Conagra, Target, Starbucks, restaurants across the US — are all restructuring their product lines around GLP-1 users. Smaller portions, higher protein, more fibre. This doesn’t specifically help NVO over LLY. But it does counter the “GLP-1 is a fad” argument. When companies spend billions reformulating entire product portfolios around a drug trend, they’re making a structural bet that 30 million Americans will be on these drugs by 2030. That’s the demand curve that underpins the long-term case for the whole category — including NVO.
What Could Still Go Wrong
I want to be honest about the risks too. And I’ll say this upfront — some people think NVO is a value trap, and honestly, I can see why.
The biggest risk is orforglipron. LLY’s oral GLP-1 is expected to get FDA approval in Q2. If it gains traction quickly, it could repeat what Zepbound did to injectable Wegovy, now in the oral market.
CagriSema FDA review in H2 2026 is also binary. Approval re-rates the stock. Rejection adds more pressure.
And it’s worth acknowledging something uncomfortable. NVO’s next-gen pipeline is essentially racing to match what LLY has already commercialised. That’s not a one-year gap. When NVO ran CagriSema in a head-to-head trial against Zepbound, they lost — and the stock paid for it. The same binary risk exists with every upcoming trial. Amycretin in Phase 3, CagriSema FDA decision, UBT251 global trials — any one of these disappointing could trigger another significant selloff. NVO has a track record of this. That’s the pattern investors need to be aware of.
And the 2026 earnings will just be painful. The guidance is negative 5-13%. This is a 2027 story, not a 2026 story.
So What Do I Do With the Options?
With the April calls essentially dead, the decision is simple — close them and take the loss.
As for buying more shares, I’m in no rush. NVO has been flat around USD 36–38 for weeks. The thesis is a 2027 story, not a tomorrow story. I’ll watch for a better entry or average in gradually once the options are off the table.
Disclosure: This article represents the author’s personal investment research and opinions. It is not financial advice. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.