September 2026 Portfolio Review: In a Closed Pool, Averaging Down Means Selling Winners
A month with no trades erased my YTD gain, and showed me that in a fixed pool, averaging down means selling winners to fund losers.
A month with no trades erased my YTD gain, and showed me that in a fixed pool, averaging down means selling winners to fund losers.
On 11 August my portfolio was up by double digits for the year. Three weeks later it was 4.1%. Nothing collapsed — the month just got less friendly, and it’s made me want to own fewer companies.
June was my worst month of the year. So I stopped tracking 25 stocks and started tracking 4 themes instead. Turns out I’m better at finding good companies than deciding how much of the portfolio each one deserves.
May 2026 portfolio review is up. The headline +0.4% hides a tale of two portfolios — non-China up +28% YTD, China down -15.2%. I break down what’s dragging, why I’m still holding the AV names, and what I’m doing in June ahead of the FOMC on June 17.
I was in Beijing when China’s Q1 GDP came in at 5.0%. The number and what I saw on the ground didn’t quite tell the same story. Here’s how my China positions benchmarked against HSCI — and what I’m watching next.