September 2026 Portfolio Review: In a Closed Pool, Averaging Down Means Selling Winners
A month with no trades erased my YTD gain, and showed me that in a fixed pool, averaging down means selling winners to fund losers.
A month with no trades erased my YTD gain, and showed me that in a fixed pool, averaging down means selling winners to fund losers.
On 11 August my portfolio was up by double digits for the year. Three weeks later it was 4.1%. Nothing collapsed — the month just got less friendly, and it’s made me want to own fewer companies.
June was my worst month of the year. So I stopped tracking 25 stocks and started tracking 4 themes instead. Turns out I’m better at finding good companies than deciding how much of the portfolio each one deserves.
Momenta’s technology is strong enough to attract nine of the world’s top ten automakers, but as a software supplier rather than a vehicle owner, it doesn’t capture value the way Tesla or XPeng do. I’m watching it, not buying it — unless its cross-automaker learning advantage turns out to be real.
May 2026 portfolio review is up. The headline +0.4% hides a tale of two portfolios — non-China up +28% YTD, China down -15.2%. I break down what’s dragging, why I’m still holding the AV names, and what I’m doing in June ahead of the FOMC on June 17.
My April 2026 portfolio returned +9.6%, now 4.2 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 YTD. Healthcare led, Industrials lagged, and five positions reported earnings in 24 hours. Here’s what I’m watching going into May.
I was in Beijing when China’s Q1 GDP came in at 5.0%. The number and what I saw on the ground didn’t quite tell the same story. Here’s how my China positions benchmarked against HSCI — and what I’m watching next.
XPeng vs Tesla: Same technology roadmap, opposite trajectories.
XPeng growing 150% trades at 2x sales. Tesla declining 8.6%
trades at 16x sales. Here’s my full investment analysis.